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Forex Trading- Mistakes in a Trading Environment
When it comes to trading, one of the most neglected subjects are those dealing with trading psychology. Most traders spend days, months and even years trying to find the right system. But having a system is just part of the game. Don't get us wrong, it is very important to have a system that perfectly suits the trader, but it is as important as having a money management plan, or to understand all psychology barriers that may affect the trader decisions and other issues. In order to succeed in this business, there must be equilibrium between all important aspects of trading.
In the trading environment, when you lose a trade, what is the first idea that pops up in your mind? It would probably be, �There must be something wrong with my system�, or �I knew it, I shouldn't have taken this trade� (even when your system signaled it). But sometimes we need to dig a little deeper in order to see the nature of our mistake, and then work on it accordingly.
When it comes to trading the Forex market as well as other markets, only 5% of traders achieve the ultimate goal: to be consistent in profits. What is interesting though is that there is just a tiny difference between this 5% of traders and the rest of them. The top 5% grow from mistakes; mistakes are a learning experience, they learn an invaluable lesson on every single mistake made. Deep in their minds, a mistake is one more chance to try it harder and do it better the next time, because they know they might not get a chance the next time. And at the end, this tiny difference becomes THE big difference.
Mistakes in the trading environment
Most of us relate a trading mistake to the outcome (in terms of money) of any given trade. The truth is, a mistake has nothing to do with it, mistakes are made when certain guidelines are not followed. When the rules you trade by are violated. Take for instance the following scenarios:
First scenario: The system signals a trade.
1. Signal taken and trade turns out to be a profitable trade.
Outcome of the trade : Positive, made money.
Experience gained: Its good to follow the system, if I do this consistently the odds will turn in my favor. Confidence is gained in both the trader and the system.
Mistake made: None.
1. Signal taken and trade turns out to be a loosing trade.
Outcome of the trade: Negative, lost money.
Experience gained: It is impossible to win every single trade, a loosing trade is just part of the business; our raw material, we know we can't get them all right. Even with this lost trade, the trader is proud about himself for following the system. Confidence in the trader is gained.
Mistake made : None.
1. Signal not taken and trade turns out to be a profitable trade.
Outcome of the trade: Neutral.
Experience gained: Frustration, the trader always seems to get in trades that turned out to be loosing trades and let the profitable trades go away. Confidence is lost in the trader self.
Mistake made: Not taking a trade when the system signaled it.
1. Signal not taken and trade turns out to be a loosing trade.
Outcome of the trade: Neutral.
Experience gained: The trader will start to think �hey, I'm better than my system�. Even if the trader doesn't think on it consciously, the trader will rationalize on every signal given by the system because deep in his or her mind, his or her �feeling� is more intelligent than the system itself. From this point on, the trader will try to outguess the system. This mistake has catastrophic effects on our confidence to the system. The confidence on the trader turns into overconfidence.
Mistake made: Not taking a trade when system signaled it
Second Scenario: System does not signal a trade.
1. No trade is taken
Outcome of the trade: Neutral
Experience gained: Good discipline, we only need to take trades when the odds are in our favor, just when the system signals it. Confidence gained in both the trader self and the system.
Mistake made: None
1. A trade is taken, turns out to be a profitable trade.
Outcome of the trade: Positive, made money.
Experience gained: This mistake has the most catastrophic effects in the trader self, the system and most importantly in the trader's trading career. You will start to think you need no system, you know better from them all. From this point on, you will start to trade based on what you think. Confidence in the system is totally lost. Confidence in the trader self turns into overconfidence.
Mistake made: Take a trade when there was no signal from the system.
1. A trade is taken, turned out to be a loosing trade.
Outcome of the trade: negative, lost money.
Experience gained: The trader will rethink his strategy. The next time, the trader will think it twice before getting in a trade when the system does not signal it. The trader will go �Ok, it is better to get in the market when my system signals it, only those trade have a higher probability of success�. Confidence is gained in the system.
Mistake made: Take a trade when there was no signal from the system
As you can see, there is absolutely no correlation between the outcome of the trade and a mistake. The most catastrophic mistake even has a positive trade outcome, made money, but this could be the beginning of the end of the trader's career. As we have already stated, mistakes must only be related to the violation of rules a trader trades by.
All these mistakes were directly related to the signals given by a system, but the same is applied when getting out of a trade. There are also mistakes related to following a trading plan. For example, risking more money on a given trade than the amount the trader should have risked and many more.
Most mistakes can be avoided by first having a trading plan. A trading plan includes the system : the criteria we use to get in and out the market, the money management plan : how much we will risk on any given trade, and many other points. Secondly, and most important, we need to have the discipline to follow strictly our plan. We created our plan when no trade was placed on, thus no psychology barriers were up front. So, the only thing we are certain about is that if we follow our plan, the decision taken is on our best interests, and in the long run, these decisions will help us have better results. We don't have to worry about isolated events, or trades that could had give us better results at first, but then they could have catastrophic results in our trading career.
How to deal with mistakes
There are many possible ways to properly manage mistakes. We will suggest the one that works better for us.
Step one: Belief change.
Every mistake is a learning experience. They all have something valuable to offer. Try to counteract the natural tendency of feeling frustrated and approach mistakes in a positive manner. Instead of yelling to everyone around and feeling disappointed, say to yourself �ok, I did something wrong, what happened? What is it?
Step two: Identify the mistake made.
Define the mistake, find out what caused the mistake, and try as hard as you can to effectively see the nature of that mistake. Finding the mistake nature will prevent you from making the same mistake again. More than often you will find the answer where you less expected. Take for instance a trader that doesn't follow the system. The reason behind this could be that the trader is afraid of loosing. But then, why is he or she afraid? It could be that the trader is using a system that does not fit him or her, and finds difficult to follow every signal. In this case, as you can see, the nature of the mistake is not in the surface. You need to try as hard as you can to find the real reason of the given mistake.
Step three: Measure the consequences of the mistake.
List the consequences of making that particular mistake, both good and bad. Good consequences are those that make us better traders after dealing with the mistake. Think on all possible reasons you can learn from what happened. For the same example above, what are the consequences of making that mistake? Well, if you don't follow the system, you will gradually loose confidence in it, and this at the end will put you into trades you don't really want to be, and out of trades you should be in.
Step four: Take action.
Taking proper action is the last and most important step. In order to learn, you need to change your behavior. Make sure that whatever you do, you become �this-mistake-proof�. By taking action we turn every single mistake into a small part of success in our trading career. Continuing with the same example, redefining the system would be the trader's final step. The trader would put a system that perfectly fits him or her, so the trader doesn't find any trouble following it in future signals.
Understanding the fact that the outcome of any trade has nothing to do with a mistake will open your mind to other possibilities, where you will be able to understand the nature of every mistake made. This at the same time will open the doors for your trading career as you work and take proper action on every mistake made.
The process of success is slow, and plenty of times it is attributed to repeated mistakes made and the constant struggle to get past these mistakes, working on them accordingly. How we deal with them will shape our future as a trader, and most importantly as a person.
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We�d like to remind you that the higher the credit leverage, the higher is your profit if the fluctuation of the currency rate was anticipated correctly. However, if your anticipation was wrong, your losses will be bigger.
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Forex is all about how to hit the next ball correctly rather than worrying about something of a distant future. The next ball may be for 2 pips or 20 pips or 200 pips or 500 pips depending on a trader?s style.
Anything is possible in Forex.
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USING STOPS
Please always give stop order per your risk profile when you open any new position. Medium-term reversals can be confirmed only in monthly, weekly and daily charts. Chart reading is not to predict the tops or bottoms of any move, but to confirm the change of trend as soon as they are made and adopt right strategies in that new trend. Good trades.
Daily Forex Market Commentary for October 18, 2006Thu, 19 Oct 2006 01:11:00 GMT
Forex Market Commentary for October 18, 2006
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary by Cornelius Luca
The dollar fell broadly on Tuesday amid a very strong TIC data report, a very strong core PPI and a very weak industrial production...
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Choosing a Forex Broker
By Grace Cheng
As you may already know, foreign exchange (Forex/FX) is an unregulated market that is not traded on an exchange, which means that prices you see and get from one broker could vary from those of another broker. There are mainly two types of brokers. One type is an ECN (Electronic Communications Network) and another a Market-Maker.
Market-makers "make" or set the prices on their systems based on what they think is best for themselves as the counter-party. This is because every time you sell, they must buy, and when you buy, they must sell to you. This is why they can give you a fixed spread since they are setting both the bid and the ask price. Many of them will then try to "hedge" or "cover" your order by passing it on to someone else; however, some may decide to hold your order, and thus trade against you. This can result in a conflict of interest between the retail trader (you) and the market-maker.
ECNs, on the other hand, pass on prices from several banks and market-makers, as well as from the other traders in the ECN, and display the best bid/ask prices based on these input. This is why sometimes you can get no spread on ECNs, especially in very liquid currency pairs. How do ECNs make money then? They do so by charging you a fixed commission for each transaction.
Here are some of the pros and cons of ECNs and market-makers:
Market-Makers
Pros:
* Usually give free charting software and news feed
* Prices can be "smoother" and less volatile than ECN prices (this can be a con if you are scalping or trading very short term)
* Often have a more user-friendly trading and analysis interface
Cons:
* They may trade against you. In that case, there will be a conflict of interest between you and them
* The price they offer you may be worse than what you could get on an ECN
* It is possible that they may trigger stops or not let your trade reach your profit target levels by manipulating prices
* During news, there will usually be a large amount of slippage; their systems may also lock up or not allow order placing during times of high volatility
* Many of them discourage scalping and put scalpers on "manual execution" which means their orders may not get filled at the price they want
Examples of some market-makers:
http://www.goforex.net/forex-broker-list.htm#MMECNs
* Pros: You can usually get better bid/ask prices since they come from several sources
* Variable spreads between bid and ask may give no spread or tiny spreads at times
* If they are a true ECN, they will not be trading against you but will pass on your orders to a bank or another customer on the other end of the transaction.
* You will be able to offer a price between the bid and ask with a chance of it getting filled
* If they support Stop-Limit orders, you can prevent slippage during news by making sure that your order either gets filled at the price you want or not at all
* Prices may be more volatile which will be better for scalping
Cons:
* Many do not offer integrated charting
* Many do not offer integrated news
* Many of the trading platforms are less user-friendly
* Because of variable spreads (between bid and ask,) it may be more difficult to calculate stop loss and profit target in pips beforehand.
It is important that you carefully look into the pros and cons of each broker before choosing the one which best suits your needs. You may also wish to have several broker accounts to mitigate the risks, and so that you can compare bid/ask prices and trade on the broker with the best prices for the direction you wish to trade. Because of the unregulated nature of forex, US brokers are not required to keep your money in an untouchable account that only you can have access to if they were to collapse. As customers of Refco (was one of the world's largest brokers) found out, their unprotected accounts made them unsecured creditors, and thus are less likely to get their money back than those who had given secured loans to Refco. What this means is that the customers' money was used to pay other creditors.
The moral of the story is this:
Deposit as little money with your broker as you need for trading, and withdraw your profits when they exceed a certain amount. Keep the rest of your trading capital in your own bank accounts which are probably government-insured.
http://www.gracecheng.com/
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Experts who watch the oil market are split on which way oil prices are headed, and just how far. A little over a year ago, most pundits agreed that $40 a barrel was the upper limit for a barrel of crude oil. At the year's beginning, oil had already broken that point, and was selling at $42.50 a barrel. The vagaries of the weather, world politics and actual capacity to meet demands have fueled one of the most volatile pricing years in recent memory. At one point, the price of crude broke $70 a barrel, an increase of 65% over the beginning of the year. And while prices dropped for a short period, at the end of the year, they were still 45% higher than at the beginning of the year. Since the turn of the year, prices have begun their climb again, and the majority of traders believe that we won't see a reversal of that trend in the near future. The conservative predict a price of $80 per barrel. The more aggressive are calling it at $100.
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Canada has been climbing on the list of the world's oil producers for years, and is currently the ninth largest exporter of oil worldwide. Since the year 2000, Canada has been the largest supplier of oil to the U.S., and has been getting considerable attention from the Chinese market. It's predicted that by 2010, China's import needs for oil will double, and match that of the U.S. by 2030. Currently, Canada is positioned to be the largest exporter of oil to China. This puts Canada's dollar in an excellent position from a trading perspective.
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The Forex market is a nonstop cash market where currencies of nations are traded, typically via brokers called forex brokers. Foreign currencies are constantly and simultaneously bought and sold across local and global markets while traders increase or decrease value of an investment upon currency movements. Foreign exchange market conditions can change at any time in response to real-time events so it is also considered to be a highly volatile and fragile market too. Conditions of the Forex market never remain the same they changes every second.
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When looking at the technical analysis in the Forex, there are three basic principles that are used to make projections. These principles are based on the market action in relation to current events, trends in price movements and past Forex history. When the market action is looked at, everything from supply and demand, current politics and the current state of the market are taken into consideration. It is usually agreed that the actual price of the Forex is a direct reflection of current events.
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Rush of investors to oil costly for allTue, 04 Mar 2008 09:41:55 EST
The economy is stumbling, energy supplies are rising, yet oil prices are hitting new records. What's going on here?

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